Border Walls

During the U.S. presidential campaign, the Trump Mexican border wall received a lot of attention.  When reviewing the chart below and visualizing the rise of border walls during the contraction phase of Cycle 3, one can easily see why something perceived as extreme would be occurring in the recent election. During the contraction in mood and mindset, destructive behavior rises to the top.  This behavior is expected as these extremes.

EINHAWK DowGold vs Border Walls JUNE 2017

Border walls data source: Elisabeth Vallet (2016)

 

Berlin Wall

 

Berlin Wall2

The Dow Gold Ratio and the Credit Suisse Fear Index

Credit Suisse calculates a “fear index” that can be charted under the symbol CSFB.  The index measures the relative cost of sell/buy options in the market.  The chart below compares it to the Dow Gold Ratio, our barometer for mood, mindset, and behavior. The CSFB is rapidly trending up as expected in this contraction phase of the cycle.

EINHAWK Fear Index CSFB aug 2016

 

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2016/04/11/a-measure-of-stock-market-fear-just-hit-an-all-time-high/

 

Closing Bell – ETF Dashboard

And magically the bulls are back!!!  The BREXIT drama has come to a final conclusion. The largest move on my ETF list today was the Brazil Bull ETF.  One of the most unstable countries in the world is top of the list.  So interesting.  The top Bears were focused on the US Treasuries.

Closing Bell - ETF Dashboard

Fear Events – Orlando Shooting

The Orlando shooting adds to a long list of cowardly attacks from both American and non-American assailants.  During the contraction phase of the cycle, humans collectively tend to be more fearful, angry, and pessimistic.  This leads to many destructive outcomes on an individual and group basis.

The chart below illustrates the major “fear events” since the contraction phase of Cycle 3 started in 1999.  It denotes a progression of major events that have caused an increase in fear and anger in the herd.  The Y2K event kicked off this phase in late 1999.

Unfortunately if the Dow-Gold Ratio Cyclicity Theory is correct, the next few years will see much more of these type of events.

EINHAWK Dow Gold Ratio MAJOR FEAR EVENTS

Launch – Inaugural Post

EinHawk LLC is a business intelligence firm utilizing analytics software technology to identify trends, correlations, anomalies, and cyclic patterns in disparate datasets resulting in advanced knowledge applicable to problem solving and predictive forecasting. Analytics on top of “big data” can discover hidden patterns and relationships.

EinHawk DB™ is a robust, multi-variable database spanning finance, energy, and social science data. Daily, monthly, and annual data are captured over the past 150 years providing the ability to interpret trends, anomalies, and relationships across all time scales. The integration of hundreds of disparate variables provides unique evaluation opportunities with analytics software technology.

Business Problem + Data + Analytics = Solution/Insight/Knowledge/Forecast

Click the link below to read our foundational presentation,

“Cyclicity & The Collective Human Experience – 1900-2016”.

Foundational Presentation